But the Red Devils CAN still make it, if history is anything to go by.
United are currently on 42 points in the Premier League. Back in 2010, Spurs finished fourth after being on 43 points at the same stage of the season.
And David Moyes can take further confidence from Arsenal, who claimed a Champions League spot last year after racking up just 44 points after 26 games.
The average number of points required to get fourth at this stage of the season in the last decade is just 46 - and United are just four off that tally.
Arsenal in 2006 (41) and Liverpool in 2004 (39) both had fewer points at this stage of the season than United do now and still managed to nab fourth.
The tightest title race in years means the fourth-placed finisher will rack up far more than the average total number of points required (68) in the last 10 years.
But the bottom line is, based on the average of the last decade, United are currently just four points off what is necessary to get Champions League football.
Bookies Paddy Power reckon it's unlikely, though.
They make United 10/1 outsiders to finish in the top-four, with Liverpool the 1/6 favourites.